Introduction: What is
the REV strategy?
“Reforming the Energy Vision” (REV) is the name
of the long-term energy strategy of New York State, which was developed in 2015
under Governor Andrew M. Cuomo (Source: DPS 2015), who was first elected in
November 2010 and reelected in November 2014.
Further to the REV strategy’s definition in
2015, it shall be implemented through a variety of regulatory tools and policy
decisions. In this context, it is interesting to consult the “2015 New York
State Energy Plan”, a document which was set out to coordinate the steps taken
by public authorities to “advance the REV agenda” (Source: New York State
Energy Planning Board, 2015a).
Based on these sources, the present document
shall, in a first step, outline the REV targets and then, in a second step,
critically assess some aspects of these targets’ implementation progress.
1) What are the REV targets?
The three following targets are generally
presented as REV’s main targets to be achieved by 2030:
- A
reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40% compared to 1990 levels
- 50%
of New York’s electricity shall be generated by renewable energy sources (RES)
- Energy
consumption of buildings shall be reduced by 23% compared to 2012 levels. This is
said to correspond to energy savings of 600 trillion BTU.
It is noteworthy that these targets
can also be seen in a broader regulatory context[i].
However, this broader context cannot be described in detail in the framework of
this document at hand.
Nevertheless, REV also includes some additional
targets, such as “Make Energy More Affordable for All New Yorkers”, “Support
the Growth of Clean Energy Innovation”, “Empower New Yorkers to Make More
Informed Energy Choices”, “Improve New York's Energy Infrastructure”, “Create
New Jobs and Business Opportunities”, “Protect New York's Natural Resources”, “Build
a More Resilient Energy System”, “Support Cleaner Transportation” and “Cut
Greenhouse Gas Emissions 80% by 2050” (Source: New York State 2016).
Yet, these targets (except the last one) are
inherently less quantifiable, since their outcome is less measurable and since
there is no clear deadline by which they shall be achieved. Thus, it could be
argued that they are less binding and less ambitious than the above-mentioned
three targets for 2030. Still, these quantitative goals should not be
underestimated either, given that they might contribute to a certain number of
new energy policies.
Furthermore, some of the targets seem to contradict
each other. For example, it could be argued that if the state of New York was
really to implement its target of “improving New York’s energy infrastructure”,
this might then be seen as an increasing contradiction to the promise of
“making energy more affordable for all New Yorkers”. This type of contradiction
between the goals has not yet been solved by the REV strategy – the solution
has merely been postponed.
2) What is the current progress towards the REV goals?
According to the impact assessment that was
issued at the same time as the New York State Energy Plan, greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions in New York in 2011 were “slightly lower” than those of 1990, whereas
national GHG emissions increased by 8% from 1990 to 2011 (Source: New York
State Energy Planning Board, 2015b). Therefore, even though New York is
outperforming the national average of GHG reductions, a “slightly lower” level
is still nowhere near the 40% cut that is envisaged for 2030.
Among the tools for further GHG reductions, the
2015 New York State Energy Plan quotes several “past and ongoing energy
efficiency and renewables programs”, such as “the System Benefits Charge,
Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard
(EEPS), Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)” (Source: New York State
Energy Planning Board, 2015a). Not all of these tools can be analyzed in detail
in the framework of this short blog entry. Instead, as an exemplary field of
policies, New York State’s renewable energy support shall be described with more
detail.
In contrast to many other US jurisdictions, New
York’s renewable energy support does not require utilities to purchase
electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) or renewable energy
certificates for a certain percentage of their electricity sales. Instead, the New
York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) acts as a "central
procurement administrator" which manages the budget that supports RES-E
production for either on-site consumption or for feed-in into the wholesale
market of the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO). According to the 2015
New York State Energy Plan, the Renewable Portfolio Standard has enabled the
construction of “nearly 1,900 MW of clean power” between 2004 and 2015 (Source:
New York State Energy Planning Board, 2015a). According to the same source, further
support for renewable energy sources includes the following items:
- The
NY-Sun Initiative, which features a budget of $1 billion for additional support
to New York State’s solar industry. In this context, it is considered by the
2015 New York State Energy Plan that 3,000 MW of solar capacity could be added
to the State’s electricity mix by 2023.
- K-SOLAR,
a solar energy program for schools.
- On-going
discussions about possible new “Shared Renewables” policies, allowing homes
without appropriate rooftop conditions to benefit from solar energy, via “community
net metering“.
- On-going
reflections about possible measures to support Offshore Wind energy.
- A
continuous development of support measures for heat from renewable energy
sources.
- A
commitment to assess opportunities to encourage energy production from organic
waste.
- The
development of a state-wide strategy for sustainable fuel production.
On top of this enumeration of programs, further
support for renewable energy exist in various forms, such as individual net
metering provisions or the State-owned New York Green Bank, which enhances the
investment conditions for certain clean energy projects.
But how effective are all these support
measures and tools? After all, the intermediate target of the RPS stipulates
that New York State’s electricity mix shall reach a RES-E share of 30% by 2015
(Source: NYSERDA 2015).
Different sources give varying evaluations concerning
the achievement of this goal:
- According
to NYISO, the RES-E share in New York State was 23% in 2015; however, no
details about individual RES-E technologies are given (Source: NYISO 2016).
- According
to the Federal Department of Energy, the RES-E share in New York State is 44.79%,
though this nationwide comparison unfortunately does not indicate which year it
refers to. The major RES-E contribution comes from hydro power (about 30%),
followed by biomass (above 10%). The remaining 4.79% are mainly provided by
wind energy, while solar and geothermal power remain negligible (Source: US
Department of Energy 2016).
These impressive statistical variations could
be explained by various factors, such as different methodologies or different
reference time frames. In addition, it is equally noteworthy that these figures
also highlight that New York’s current RES-E generation depends largely on
hydropower. Indeed, hydropower is a renewable technology that faces certain
deployment limitations in industrialized countries, as it requires specific
geographic conditions.
Hence, it could prove to be unrealistic to rely
solely on hydropower to achieve the REV target of a RES-E share of 50% in the
New York power mix by 2030. Alternatively, wind and solar energy are among the cheapest
RES-E technologies that can be deployed on a larger scale without too many
geographic restrictions. Concerning the installed wind energy capacity, New
York currently occupies the 13th place in the ranking of US States,
according to the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA). However, while AWEA
acknowledges that New York possesses 1,749 MW of installed wind turbines, the
outlook of projects under construction amounts to only 79 MW (Source: AWEA
2016). This growth rate is much too low if wind energy is to contribute
significantly to the 50%-goal of 2030. Likewise, according to the Solar Energy
Industries Association (SEIA), the installed solar photovoltaic capacity sums
up to 803 MW in New York State (the 7th place in the ranking of US
States), and could see an increase of additional 3,007 MW in the next five
years, which would be the 5th highest growth rate in the US over
that time frame (Source: SEIA 2016). Despite this substantial increase, the
contribution of solar photovoltaic energy to the overall electricity mix would
still be relatively low in the early 2020s, given the low load factor of that
technology[ii].
Conclusion
As discussed in this blog entry, the clean energy figures of NYISO
and the US Department of Energy are showing significant differences (23% vs.
45% of RES-E in the electricity mix in New York State). Indeed, it may be quite
revealing that it does not seem like there are reliable, easy-to-find,
unequivocal statistics on renewable energy… At least, it constitutes an obstacle when assessing New York's clean energy progress.
New York State’s energy strategy – known as
“Reforming the Energy Vision” or “REV” – sets out ambitious clean energy goals
for 2030. Indeed, the State already possesses a variety of clean energy support
mechanisms and substantial renewable energy installations. However, this
present document has also shown that it is not yet certain if and how these
assets and their future evolution will suffice to meet the REV targets for
2030. Further in-depth research (including specific assumptions on future
technology costs and revenues) would be necessary to evaluate the deployment
potentials of each renewable energy technology in New York State.
It can be
argued that the level of ambition shown by New York State’s energy policy sends
out an encouraging message to the clean energy industry. Nevertheless, actual
deployment of clean energy will depend on the future evolution of regulatory
support, technology costs and revenues.
Sources
New York State (2016): Reforming the
Energy Vision. Retrieved on 10/30/2016, from: http://rev.ny.gov/
NYSERDA (2013). NYSERDA Renewable
Portfolio Standard Customer-Sited Tier Impact Evaluation Report: Solar PV and
On-Site Wind Programs. Prepared for The New York State Energy Research and
Development Authority.
Prepared by The Cadmus Group, Inc.
Contract Number: 24890.
[i] Such as the nationwide “Clean
Power Plan” from 2014, which calls for a 30% reduction in the USA’s GHG
emissions by 2030, compared to 2005 levels; or the “BuildSmart NY” initiative
from 2012, which aims for a 20% energy efficiency improvement by 2020 for all
buildings that are owned and managed by New York State.
[ii] For example: a
NYSERDA-commissioned report determined photovoltaic capacity factors of 13,4%
(NYSERDA 2013). This way, even a photovoltaic capacity of 3,810 MW, as
mentioned in the above-mentioned future projection, would be unlikely to
produce much more than 4 TWh, which would be only around 3% of New York’s power
generation (142 TWh in 2015, according to NYISO 2016).
