European road transport - A little "p.s."

By JJB

As if reacting somehow to our last article about their figures for European road transport (and our follow-up article adding some further analysis), German newspaper FAZ and Statista published a new graph about this topic.

According to them, Germany is quite an important hotspot for road transport in terms of transported goods (represented 7 times in the Top 10; see graph below). Other highly active countries are Belgium, France and the Netherlands.

The 10 busiest interconnections for European road transport of goods (in terms of million tons transported) in 2013. Click on graph to enlarge. Source: Eurostat as quoted by FAZ/Statista

Again, it would still be interesting to also know about realized profits and where they are located. For this question, further research and pieces of information would still be necessary.

European road transport (2/2) - Getting to the goal together!

By JJB

If we take a closer look at Eurostat figures, we can see that only 6 countries are above the limit of 1bn tons annually transported on the road : France, Spain, Germany, the UK, Italy and Poland.
Portugal, for instance, has one of the lowest figures for road transport in Europe - meaning that the numerous registered heavy-goods vehicles in Portugal, which we saw in our last blog post, must be at a rather low utilization rate (at least within the Portuguese territory).

Click to enlarge. Source: Eurostat

With regard to absolute figures, Germany has the highest record, reaching almost 3bn tons of road transport in some years (tendency rising during the last 10 years). France is quite close, maintaining a relatively stable average of 2bn tons. Therefore, the different figures of registered heavy-good vehicles in France and Germany, as reported by FAZ/Statista, may be due to other context elements (company strategies on where to register the vehicles; regulatory factors which influence those strategies; utilization rates of the vehicles; size of the vehicles; etc.) but not the quantity of road transport itself. 
Furthermore, the absolute figures show a steady rise for road transport in Poland, as well as a peak around 2007 in Italy, Spain and the UK, followed by a decrease (however, with different intensities : figures keep decreasing in Italy and Spain, whereas the UK figures seem to have recovered or at least stabilized).

Click to enlarge. Source: Eurostat

Further research would be required to assess which countries and which companies benefitted most from those road transports. At this stage, we can only take a limited first glimpse at the road transport sector in Europe.


Nevertheless, we might already have a look at the European representation of road transport. One of the biggest EU-lobby organizations of the road transport sector has kept its French abbreviation (possibly yet another indicator for a French leadership in this sector?), instead of switching to an English one like most lobbies. Indeed, the "Union Européenne des Transporteurs Routiers" (UETR) represents 16 national associations from 14 countries (according to its German member BTV). Yet, the new president of UETR, elected in February 2015, is not a French national... but she is from Germany!
In any case, with three vice-presidents coming from France, Italy and Slovenia, the association indeed keeps up quite a European mix.

After all, it maybe doesn't always matter so much about who leads the race, but more about getting to the goal together.

Dagmar Wäscher, the newly-elected president of UETR. Source: BTV

P.s.: It is also quite interesting to take a look at the importance of road transport in each country, expressed as a percentage of all inland freight transport, and compared to waterway and railway transport, just to complete the picture. For example, it is noteworthy that the share of road transport is relatively low in countries such as Germany, Sweden, Belgium and the Netherlands, which in return rely more on waterway transport (Netherlands, Belgium), railway (Sweden) or a mix of both (Germany) :

Road, railway and waterway share in total inland
freight transport (tonne-kilometres, 2012). Source: Eurostat

European road transport (1/2) - Who is leading the race?

By JJB

Which are Europe's leading nations of road transport?
If you think that they must definitely be located in the centre of Europe, with many road interconnections to other countries, you may have to think again. Internal trade might be just as important as external commerce... At least when regarding the number of registered heavy-good vehicles, according to German newspaper FAZ quoting Statista and Eurostat, less centrally located countries like Spain and Portugal are also part of the European Top7. Moreover, France seems to be right on top when it comes to leading the road transport sector...
However, even if France has got the highest number of registered vehicles, further indicators would be needed to analyse the full picture correctly: how many commodities are transported by those vehicles per year, and to the benefit of which transport companies? What impacts does regulation have on the choice of vehicle registration (e.g.: taxes, administrative burden)?

Number of registered heavy-good vehicles per country. Source : Eurostat as quoted by FAZ/statista

We will analyse some further pieces of information in a separate blog post, in order to complete this picture.

Afrique subsaharienne : quel avenir énergétique ?

Par JJB

Le World Energy Outlook (WEO) de 2013, publié par l'Agence Internationale de l'Énergie (IEA), a déjà été présenté sur ce blog.
Actuellement, dans le cadre de la mise à jour 2014 du WEO, un rapport spécial sur l'Afrique subsaharienne a été publié par l'IEA. Celui-ci présente l'énergie non seulement comme un instrument favorisant la croissance économique de la région en question, mais également comme une référence du progrès sociétal - deux aspects qui sont en effet étroitement liés.

Ainsi, les auteurs soulignent qu'aujourd'hui, dans cette région, plus de 620 millions de personnes (deux tiers de la population) vivent sans électricité et presque 730 millions utilisent des installations cuisinières inefficaces voire dangereuses. Selon l'IEA, ce manque d'équipements adéquats de cuisine cause près de 600.000 morts par an en Afrique, suite aux intoxications par la fumée. Le nombre total des personnes vivant dans ces situations ne baissera que de manière modeste d'ici 2040, selon les projections du WEO, qui estiment qu'il y aura alors toujours 650 millions de personnes (soit un tiers de la population) dans cette situation-là, notamment dans les zones rurales.

Cette réduction plutôt faible, en termes absolus, d'ici 2040 est en lien avec un autre phénomène : la croissance démographique. Celle-ci impliquerait que la croissance économique et le progrès énergétique seront, à un certain degré, relativisés par l'augmentation de la population, selon l'IEA. En effet, selon ce rapport, la taille de l'économie de la région va quadrupler d'ici 2040, tandis que la population va doubler et que la demande énergétique va augmenter d'environ 80%.

Face aux besoins énergétiques et infrastructurelles qui accompagnent une telle évolution, Fatih Birol, économiste en chef de l'IEA, met en exergue l'importance cruciale de l'investissement dans le secteur énergétique. Selon lui, chaque dollar investi apportera 15 dollars à l'économie dans son ensemble (ce qui donne également une idée du frein que peut représenter un niveau insuffisant d'investissements dans le secteur énergétique).  
Aussi, les auteurs du rapport constatent que, d'une part, les investissements dans les nouveaux systèmes d'approvisionnement d'énergie ont augmenté ; mais que, d'autre part, les deux tiers de ces investissements depuis 2000 visaient à accroître les ressources pour l'exportation.

En outre, d'après le WEO, l'Afrique sub-saharienne reste, même en 2040, un émetteur faible de gaz à effet de serre (3% du total des émissions liées à l'énergie en 2040), mais est potentiellement fortement impactée par le changement climatique. Cela pourrait également avoir un impact sur le secteur énergétique, par exemple sur les installations hydroélectriques.

De nombreuses autres tendances sont décrites dans ce rapport spécial du WEO sur l'Afrique sub-saharienne, par exemple sur l'évolution du poids des différents pays (par ex.: Nigéria et Angola pour l'export ; Afrique du Sud pour son développement économique particulier ; d'autres pays se développant également sur ces voies) et sur les tendances des différentes sources d'énergie (par ex.: la biomasse couvrant plus de 60% de la demande totale aujourd'hui, moins de 50% en 2040 ; le charbon étant la deuxième source d'énergie aujourd'hui, avec 18% de la demande totale, notamment en raison du parc de production en Afrique du Sud, mais baissant d'ici 2040). Néanmoins, ces questions ne peuvent pas être approfondies en détail sur ce blog.

Time-limited job contracts in Germany and Europe

By JJB

In Germany, the amount of employed people increased from 38,7 million in 1991 to 41,6 million in 2012 (including all kinds of employment : full or part-time, limited or unlimited contracts, etc.), according to the German Federal Agency for Civic Education :

Development of employment in Germany. NB: Figures not limited to German nationals or residents. Source: Federal Agency for Civic Education
to enlarge, click on the graph

Nevertheless, one may ask: What about the qualitative evolution of employment?

Indeed, it has frequently been reported that unlimited job contracts have become increasingly rare in Western societies. This can, for the example, be illustrated by the following graph, showing that, among the German population, the percentage of those with an unlimited full-time job contract fell from 45% in 1992 to 38% in 2007 (and might probably have decreased even further since then, due to the economic crises from 2008 on).

Part of Germans with unlimited full-time work contract. Source: Statista
to enlarge, click on the graph

However, those figures are not backed up by a precise definition of the comparison's references.
For a more differentiated approach, the following graph gives some interesting insights in terms of absolute figures. These statistics from the Federal Agency for Civic Education show an increase of about +1 million employees with time-limited job contracts: from about 1,8 million in 1991 to about 2,8 million in 2011. Moreover, this graph also shows some other forms of what the Agency calls "untypical forms of employment", which are on the rise. For example, one of those categories is part-time employment, which is much more common among women than among men, as can be seen in this graph.

"Untypical forms of employment", according to Federal Agency for Civic Education ; (thousands)
to enlarge, click on the graph

However, according to another source, for those who have a time-limited job contract, the risk of very short contract lengths is particularly low in Germany: a very little share is below 3 months, while there is a considerable share of limited work contracts of more than 12 months. This means that time-limited job contracts are more stable in Germany than in all the other countries which are quoted here. At first sight, this may sound surprising in the context of rising figures of flexible work and limited-term contracts in Germany (for example, the newspaper FAZ interpreted this as a contradiction).
Yet, the two aspects might in fact very well go together, since longer contract terms might be a way for employers to counter turnover rates which become too high. Moreover, the degree of overall use of time-limited contracts has got an impact on the pertinence of this comparison between countries. Hence, absolute figures would be a helpful additional reference here, in order to interpret those relative figures with even more accuracy.
In any case, further research would be required in order to assess those questions in more detail.

Comparison of the length of limited-term contracts in selected European countries. Source: Statista
to enlarge, click on the graph

World Energy Outlook : Quo vadis ?

Par JJB

L'Agence Internationale de l'Énergie (IEA) a publié, fin 2013, son panorama annuel de l'énergie mondiale ("World Energy Outlook 2013", soit "WEO 2013"). À la lumière d'évolutions telles que les nombreuses réformes actuelles en Europe, et les préparations pour le sommet climatique mondial à Paris en 2015, certains messages de ce documents sont fort intéressants à garder à l'esprit.

Ainsi, les auteurs rappelent que le monde énergétique est soumis à d'importantes transformations, lorsque des pays comme les États-Unis, historiquement importateurs, deviennent exportateurs... et, inversement, lorsque les exportateurs classiques gagnent en importance en ce qui concerne la consommation énergétique. En effet, selon les auteurs, la région du Moyen Orient deviendra, en 2020, la région avec la deuxième plus grande consommation de gaz au monde, et en 2030 la région avec la troisième plus grande consommation de pétrole. Globalement, 95% de la croissance de la demande d'énergie d'ici 2035 proviennent des économies émergentes, selon IEA. De plus, les experts de l'Agence soulignent que, faute de solutions mondiales à long terme, les émissions de CO2 continueront à croître, les subventions publiques aux énergies fossiles restent élevées, et de très nombreux foyers n'ont pas d'accès suffisant à l'utilisation de l'énergie (1,3 milliards de personnes sans accès à l'électricité, 2,6 milliards sans accès à des installations de cuisine propres).

Un défi supplémentaire pour les stratégies politiques et régulatoire consiste à faire face aux différences régionales de prix de gaz et électricité, ainsi qu'à une période sans précédent en ce qui concerne les prix de pétrole, constamment à haut niveau.

Bien entendu, chacun de ces sujets variés mériterait une analyse approfondi, qui ne peut toutefois pas être aboutie dans le cadre de ce blog. Néanmoins, le site de l'IEA recouvre de nombreuses sources concernant ces thématiques abordées dans le WEO 2013.

Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe - Verdict on the constitutionality of the "Euro crisis" measures

German Constitutional Court, Karlsruhe, on March 18th, 2014

(copyright EUplanet)

By JJB

In Karlsruhe, the German Federal Constitutional Court (Bundesverfassungsgericht) dismissed today a number of complaints that had been raised against some measures taken in order to counteract the currency and debt issues known as the "Euro crisis".

The Court explained that it considered the German government and parliament to still have sufficient control over the spending of their budget. Therefore, their constitutional budget competence was not infringed, according the Court. However, among the audience (comprising some well-known German politicians), several controversial discussions started after the verdict's pronouncement, which had taken about 90 minutes.

More information can be found here (in German) or here (in English).

German Constitutional Court, Karlsruhe, on March 18th, 2014 - Backyard (copyright EUplanet)

German Constitutional Court, Karlsruhe, on March 18th, 2014 - Entrance (copyright EUplanet)